Forecasting Gas Prices

Predicting future gas prices based on current conditions.

Accurately forecasting gas prices for the next couple weeks helps save money by letting you know how much of your tank you should fill up this week. After researching factors that affect the oil industry, crude oil prices from the previous weeks proved to be the most significant predictor of future gas prices. A recursive model based off of this data predicted gas prices with only 1.6% average error, allowing it to effectively guide a decision tree for when to buy gas. This project was completed for the COMAP HiMCM 36-hour competition, and my team was awarded the highest rank of Outstanding (top 1.5%) for our project, which culminated in a 27-page report. Our solution was published in the Consortium magazine.

A demonstration of the close relationship between the fitted model and the actual gas prices.